TBH: Task Bar Hero · Tool
Task Bar Hero Drop Chance Calculator
Estimate the probability of seeing at least one drop after n attempts, plus attempts needed for common confidence targets.
Results
- At least one success
- —
- No success (dry run)
- —
Attempts for confidence targets
| Confidence | Expected attempts |
|---|
How to use
- Enter a single-attempt drop probability as a percent (for example 2 for 2%).
- Enter how many attempts you plan to make.
- Read the chance of at least one success, the chance of zero successes, and target attempt counts.
Formula
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the per-attempt probability and n is the attempt count. Target attempts use n = ln(1 − confidence) / ln(1 − p).
P(at least one) = 1 - (1 - p)^nExamples
2% drop, 50 attempts
P(at least one) ≈ 1 − 0.98^50 ≈ 63.6%. You still have a meaningful chance of zero drops.
0.5% drop, 90% confidence
Expected attempts for 90% confidence ≈ ln(0.1) / ln(0.995) ≈ 460 tries.
Results are mathematical estimates based on independent trials. Game systems may differ. EratoGame is not affiliated with the game developers.
Questions
Tool FAQ
Does this use live Task Bar Hero rates?
No. You supply the probability. The tool only applies binomial “at least one” math.
What if pity systems exist?
Pity, bad-luck protection, and multi-roll tables change the model. Treat results as a baseline, not a guarantee.
EratoGame is an independent game information and tools platform and is not affiliated with the game developers or platform owners unless explicitly stated. Demo hub content is replaceable sample data for product structure — not an official wiki.